No reverse gear in democratic Malaysia

The “back door” government which PAS and Umno try to engineer is strictly to save them from the MACC.

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Published by Malaysiakini, image from Malaysiakini

The “New Malaysia” of Pakatan Harapan cannot double park on a yellow line. The yellow line was drawn by five Bersih rallies; a large majority of Malaysians who were fed up with kleptocratic politics and double talk and a coalition of the elite who overlooked their previous grievances to overcome their decades-long animosity across various party divides.

More importantly, the “New Malaysia” has no “reverse gear.” If cannot go back in time to draw PAS into the fold – with the “I told you so” – because PAS was adamant to be with Umno having, allegedly, benefited financially from it.

Their former deputy president alone, Nashuddin Mat Isa, who allegedly served as the in-between of Umno and PAS is now slapped with legions of money laundering charges.

Those in PAS and Umno are united on one cause only, to form an ultra-Malay government at all costs, to get themselves off the hook of the MACC. Why not? All of them are staring at serious jail terms that will destroy their dynastic politics forever.

Thus the “back door” government which PAS and Umno tried to engineer is strictly the politics of the old: it is the old hacks saving themselves. One might even call it the old ganging up to save their gold; in order to keep them in the fold of Umno and PAS under various nominee accounts.

This is why Umno and PAS cannot be the backbone of the “New Malaysia”. And the fissures they cause would be deadly and serious. First of all, the ultra-Malay identity politics are anti-market and anti-state; which is precisely why they don’t have an agreement on how to govern Malaysia even if they are lucky enough to snatch a simple majority by 2023.

Secondly, allowing PAS and Umno to form any prospective government is akin to asking all 32 million Malaysians, of various religious persuasions, to take that leap into the dark. If Harapan has to struggle, for now, with the absence of a clear timeline of transition, imagine how an Umno and PAS pact without a manifesto, let alone a common outlook, except to get out of jail, would look. 

Some would be running to Switzerland. Others would probably run to the Middle Eastern countries.

Thirdly, there is the strange phenomenon of Azmin Ali of PKR and Hishammuddin Hussein of Umno having their holiday in Morocco. What is there that is so enervating that they must meet there? That is a manifestation of Umno, PAS and a potential breakaway faction from PKR trying to get the numbers right. But they can never get it right because the identity politics of Sarawak and Malaysia is not necessarily pro-ultra Malay.

Malaysia cannot go back to the past, or as one ancient Greek philosopher once said, one cannot “dip into the water twice, and emerge from it the same.” PAS, for the lack of a better word, has been outgunned by Amanah. Whether it was a knife from the front, or, a proverbial bullet from the back, PAS is spent; just as Umno is emasculated by the existence of Bersatu day by day, even though Umno insists that Bersatu has had no impact on it. 

How can Umno suffer no impact when Umno’s funds are frozen while Bersatu’s aren’t? One can shop for options, the other has to step aside.

The global economic order is not written in Arabic. Even in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha or Jeddah, they are run by expatriates and foreign overseas workers. PAS cannot run to them anymore. Umno and PAS are finished. What has not set in is rigor mortis.

Dr. Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think-tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based upon rigorous research.

文章来源:星洲日报 (Sin Chew)

希望联盟的新大马不能在黄线上双泊车。黄线是由5次的净选盟运动画下的;绝大多数大马人受够了盗窃政治和自相矛盾的话;而一个由精英组成的联盟接管了前朝政府,以解决各政党之间长期以来的仇恨。

最重要的是,新大马没有“倒车档”。如果不能及时回过头来将伊斯兰党纳入考虑范围——我已经说过了——而伊党坚决希望与巫统共存,据说,还受益匪浅。

他们的前署理主席纳沙鲁丁,据说曾是巫统和伊党的中间人,如今遭到一系列反洗钱的指控。

伊党和巫统结盟只有一个原因,不惜一切代价组建一个超级马来人政府,以摆脱大马反贪会的束缚。难道不是吗?他们所有人都面临严重的监禁刑罚,这将永远摧毁他们的政治王朝。

因此,伊党和巫统试图设计的“后门”政府,严格来说是旧政治伎俩:这是老家伙在自救的手段。甚至有人说这是老帮派在拯救他们的金子;为了继续留在巫统和伊党的金钱保护之下。

这就是为什么巫统和伊党不能成为新大马的骨干。他们造成的裂痕是致命和严重的。首先,超级马来人的身分认同政治是反市场和反国家的;这就是为什么他们没有就如何管理大马达成协议,即使他们很幸运地可以在2023年之前夺下简单多数议席。

其次,允许伊党和巫统在未来组织政府,就好像要求所有3200万不同宗教的大马人进行争论,这让他们陷入黑暗。如果现在希盟感到吃力,并没有明确的交棒时间表,请想象一下没有宣言的巫统和伊党是如何达至合作,更别说他们没有共同见解,除了要摆脱监狱这事。有些人会赶去瑞士取钱。其他人可能会奔赴中东国家追讨赃款。

第三,公正党的阿兹敏和巫统的希山慕丁在摩洛哥度假是一个奇怪的现象。有什么让人激动不已的东西,让他们必须在那里见面?这显示巫统、伊党和有可能脱离公正党的派系试图在做些什么。但他们永远做不到,因为砂拉越和大马的身分认同政治不一定倾向支持超级马来人。

大马不能回到过去,因为一名古希腊哲学家曾经说过,一个人不能“两次踏入同一条河流,因河已不同”。伊党,由于缺乏更好的语言,已被诚信党超越。不管是从正面捅刀子,或者,从后面开枪,伊党都已经用过了;就像巫统坚持说土团党对他们没有影响一样,巫统日复一日被土团党的存在威胁着。当巫统的资金被冻结,而土团党没有被冻结时,巫统怎么会没影响?一方拥有选择权,而另一方只能靠边站。

全球经济秩序不是用阿拉伯语书写的。即使在迪拜、阿布扎比、多哈、或吉达,它们是由外籍人士和海外工作者经营的。伊党已经无法去请求他们了,但希盟还可以这样做。巫统和伊党已经完蛋了,只是尚未来到尸僵的阶段。

莱士胡先是EMIR Research的总裁兼首席执行官,EMIR Research是一家致力于数据驱动型政策研究的智囊团,主要围绕敬业度,适度,创新和严谨原则。

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