The problem of unemployment during and after MCO

As a result, the increase in joblessness will indirectly put pressure on the government and Bank Negara to revive the economy.

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Published by Free Malaysia Today & Malaysiakini.

At a time when everything seems to be falling, whether global oil prices, gross domestic product or the global economy, there are a few macroeconomic indicators in which values are rising, one of which is employment.

Earlier this month, the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) released the results of a survey titled “The Effects of Covid-19 on Economic and Individuals (Round One)” with a total of 168,182 respondents nationwide.

According to the study, almost 47% of self-employed workers had lost their jobs – about 19,677 respondents. As for those who still had jobs, 35.5% reported a decrease in income by over 90%.

If the percentage is taken on an actual scale, this means that out of 2.86 million self-employed workers, 1.34 million workers have lost their jobs and almost 540,000 experienced a 90% decline in income.

This is only for those who are self-employed, not even taking into account workers who have employers.

Although DOSM said these are not the official statistics, they can still be used to explain the current situation.

By definition, the self-employed group involves farmers, breeders, fishermen and those who have their own businesses without hiring workers. This includes Mak Cik Kiah, who sells pisang goreng at a stall on her own.

At the same time, on the global front, the International Labor Organization estimates that nearly 25 million workers will lose their jobs, with loss of incomes of approximately US$3.4 trillion (RM14.8 trillion) if the virus is not controlled.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research estimates that about 2.4 million Malaysians will lose their jobs due to the Covid-19 crisis.

To make things worse, these estimates are based on a one-month implementation of the movement control order (MCO). This means that the numbers are likely to increase given the recent extension until May 12.

Of course, the extension of the MCO has helped Malaysia deal with the spread of the virus outbreak, but it will also exacerbate the economic crisis that had begun worsening even before the Covid-19 outbreak.

Direct fiscal injection worth RM35 billion through the Prihatin stimulus package would help Malaysians cope with the outbreak, but this might not be the case for the long term. And Malaysia cannot prevent a rise in unemployment rate.

As a result, the increase in joblessness will indirectly put pressure on the government and Bank Negara to revive the economy, whether by providing compensation to the affected workers, or by convincing employers to keep their employees until this pandemic is fully mitigated.

Failure to construct well-designed policies will result in a more severe recession, resulting in the possibility of the government having to consider additional stimulus packages to improve the existing stimulus.

The increase in unemployment is happening not only in Malaysia but also across the world. The unemployment rate in the US rose to 16.25% in just five weeks, which equals to 26.5 million Americans.

In Spain, the unemployment rate has surpassed 14%, the highest among developing countries.

So what can be done?

The government, particularly the health ministry led by Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, has been recognised as one of the best institutions in curbing the spread of the pandemic.

The government, with strict implementation of the MCO, assisted by various parties including the armed forces, has provided some flexibility for essential services to continue operating. This is to ensure that the economy still runs despite the ongoing MCO.

So far, there are no cases or new clusters from these essential services. This deserves our praise.

The same measures should also be imposed on other services in stages, to ensure the survival of the nation’s economy without compromising precautionary measures – social distancing, no direct contact between individuals and the compulsory use of face masks for business owners who wish to continue operations.

These measures would help reduce the burden shouldered by the employers from earning zero income, to provide an opportunity for them to retain their employees as well as to indirectly reduce the unemployment rate.

Besides this, an economic recovery plan needs to be created on an urgent basis which includes short-term, medium-term and long-term measures in order to diversify the economy and create new employment opportunities.

It should include measures to strengthen national food security, to provide means for digital transformation such as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, to develop green technology and others.

For individuals, the increased number of free online classes like those offered by Harvard University that have been made available during the MCO should be fully utilised in order to enhance existing skills and as additional preparation for finding jobs.

Until now, we have no clue of the level and intensity of the Covid-19 outbreak. But what is certain is that when the MCO is fully lifted, the health crisis will continue to haunt us in many ways.

Many expect the global economy to experience a V-shaped recovery, in which economic collapse occurs when everyone is prohibited from leaving their homes. When they are allowed to leave their homes, the economy will recover drastically.

However, in reality I think the economy will experience a W-shape recovery, in which after the MCO is over, the economy will turn around for a while, but will fall again due to the debt burdens that are overdue, then followed by a rise after the economy is able to run normally.

Amir Jalal is Research Associate at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.

Bahasa Melayu

Diterbitkan oleh Malaysiakini, The Malaysian Insight, Malaysia Gazatte & Free Malaysia Today, gambar daripada Malaysiakini.

Ketika semua perkara sedang mengalami kejatuhan nilai, sama ada harga minyak dunia, Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK), atau ekonomi global secara keseluruhannya, terdapat beberapa perkara yang nilainya meningkat naik, salah satunya ialah kadar pengangguran.

Awal April, Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia (DOSM) telah mengeluarkan hasil kaji selidik mengenai Impak Covid-19 Terhadap Ekonomi dan Individu (pusingan pertama) dan seramai 168,182 responden telah mengambil bahagian dari seluruh negara.

Berdasarkan kajian tersebut, hampir 47 peratus pekerja yang bekerja sendiri telah kehilangan pekerjaan mereka – lebih kurang 19,677 responden. Manakala bagi mereka yang masih mempunyai pekerjaan, 35.5 peratus dilaporkan mengalami penurunan pendapatan melebihi 90 peratus.

Jika peratusan tersebut diambil dalam skala sebenar, ini bermakna daripada 2.86 juta pekerja yang bekerja sendiri, 1.34 juta pekerja telah kehilangan pekerjaan. Dan hampir 540,000 lagi mengalami kejatuhan pendapatan melebihi 90 peratus.

Ini baru mengambil kira mereka yang bekerja sendiri, belum lagi dihitung mereka yang bekerja dengan majikan.

Walaupun DOSM mengatakan ini bukanlah statistik rasmi, namun ia boleh digunakan untuk menyokong gambaran tentang situasi semasa.

Definisi pekerja yang bekerja sendiri ini meliputi peladang, penternak, nelayan dan yang mempunyai perniagaan sendiri tanpa menggaji pekerja, termasuk mak cik Kiah yang menjual pisang goreng di gerai secara sendirian.

Pada masa yang sama, di peringkat global, Pertubuhan Buruh Antarabangsa (ILO) memberi gambaran bahawa hampir 25 juta pekerja akan hilang pekerjaan, dengan kehilangan pendapatan menghampiri AS$3.4 trilion (RM14.8 trilion) jika virus ini tidak dikawal.

Manakala, Institut Penyelidikan Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER) menganggarkan kira-kira 2.4 juta rakyat Malaysia akan kehilangan pekerjaan akibat krisis Covid-19 ini.

Lebih memburukkan keadaan, anggaran ini dibuat berdasarkan tempoh satu bulan Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan (PKP) dilaksanakan. Ini bermakna, dengan lanjutan PKP yang baru diumumkan sehingga 12 Mei, jumlah tersebut juga berkemungkinan meningkat.

Suntikan fiskal bukan untuk tempoh yang panjang

Sudah tentu, lanjutan PKP dapat membantu negara dalam menangani penularan virus pandemik ini, namun ia juga memburukkan lagi krisis ekonomi yang sudah mula terjejas sebelum Covid-19 ini menyerang dunia.

Suntikan fiskal secara terus bernilai RM35 bilion melalui pakej rangsangan Prihatin rakyat sedikit sebanyak dapat membantu rakyat Malaysia dalam menghadapi wabak ini, namun ia bukan untuk tempoh waktu yang panjang. Dan negara tidak dapat elak daripada peningkatan kes pengangguran.

Peningkatan ini secara tidak langsung akan memberi tekanan terhadap kerajaan dan Bank Negara dalam memulihkan semula ekonomi, sama ada mereka akan memberi ganti rugi kepada pekerja yang terkesan, atau berusaha meyakinkan majikan untuk mengekalkan pekerja mereka sehingga wabak ini berakhir.

Kegagalan dalam membentuk dasar yang kamil akan mengakibatkan kemelesetan yang lebih teruk, dan mereka berkemungkinan perlu mempertimbangkan pakej rangsangan tambahan untuk menambah baik pakej rangsangan yang sedia ada.

Peningkatan pengangguran bukan hanya berlaku di Malaysia, malah secara serentak di seluruh dunia. Pengangguran di Amerika Syarikat meningkat sehingga 16.25 peratus dalam tempoh masa hanya lima minggu, menyamai 26.5 juta rakyat Amerika.

Di Sepanyol, kadar pengangguran telah melepasi 14 peratus, antara yang tertinggi bagi negara yang sudah membangun.

Jadi, apakah yang boleh kita lakukan?

Kerajaan Malaysia, terutamanya Kementerian Kesihatan Malaysia (KKM) yang diketuai oleh Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, telah diiktiraf antara institusi yang terbaik dalam membendung penyebaran wabak pandemik ini.

Kerajaan Malaysia, dengan pelaksanaan PKP yang ketat, dibantu oleh pelbagai pihak termasuk anggota Tentera di barisan hadapan, nekad memberi sedikit kelonggaran terhadap perkhidmatan yang penting untuk terus beroperasi dalam memastikan ekonomi negara dapat berjalan ketika PKP ini masih berlangsung.

Hasilnya? Masih tiada satu kes, atau kluster baharu daripada perkhidmatan ini yang dijangkiti Covid-19. Ini patut diberi pujian.

Langkah ini wajar diteruskan untuk perkhidmatan yang lain secara berperingkat demi kelangsungan ekonomi negara tanpa mengabaikan cara pelaksanaan yang sama – penjarakan sosial, tiada kontak secara terus dan keperluan memakai topeng muka merupakan perkara yang wajib dipatuhi jika ingin terus beroperasi.

Pelan pemulihan ekonomi

Ia sedikit sebanyak dapat mengurangkan beban majikan daripada pendapatan sifar, seterusnya memberi peluang untuk majikan mengekalkan pekerja yang sedia ada dan secara tidak langsung mengurangkan kadar pengangguran.

Selain itu, pelan pemulihan ekonomi negara perlu diwujudkan dengan segera meliputi pelan jangka masa pendek, sederhana dan panjang untuk mempelbagaikan ekonomi negara dan mewujudkan peluang pekerjaan yang baru.

Pelan ini harus merangkumi pemerkasaan sekuriti makanan negara, penyediaan platform transformasi digital seperti Revolusi Perindustrian Keempat (4IR), pembangunan teknologi hijau dan lain-lain lagi.

Bagi individu pula, peningkatan kelas-kelas atas talian (online) percuma yang wujud semasa PKP ini perlu diambil dan digarap, seperti yang ditawarkan oleh Harvard University, untuk meningkatkan kemahiran yang sedia ada sebagai persediaan dan sokongan tambahan dalam mencari pekerjaan kelak.

Kita masih tidak dapat mengetahui sejauh manakah tahap dan intensiti wabak Covid-19 yang disebabkan oleh virus SARS Cov-II, namun apa yang pasti, apabila PKP ini berakhir, krisis Covid-19 akan terus menghantui kita dalam pelbagai aspek.

Ramai mengharapkan ekonomi global akan kembali pulih dalam bentuk “V”, di mana kejatuhan ekonomi berlaku ketika semua orang diperintahkan untuk tidak keluar dari rumah, dan apabila mereka dibenarkan untuk keluar rumah semula, ekonomi akan terus melonjak naik.

Namun realitinya, bagi pendapat penulis, ekonomi akan pulih dalam bentuk “W”, di mana selepas PKP berakhir, ekonomi akan pulih untuk sementara, namun akan jatuh kembali kerana bebanan hutang yang tertangguh kembali menghantui mereka, dan meningkat semula selepas ekonomi dapat berjalan seperti sedia kala.

Amir Jalal merupakan Pegawai Penyelidik di EMIR Research, sebuah organisasi pemikir bebas yang berfokuskan kepada pencernaan saranan-saranan dasar strategik berteraskan penyelidikan yang terperinci, konsisten dan menyeluruh.

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