Can Malaysia face the perfect storm?

Unless Malaysia is an oasis of peace, marked by political stability, the country will be rocked by a world in turbulence.

131 0
131 0

Published by Malaysiakini, images from Malaysiakini

Malaysia is a trading nation. This is affirmed by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed himself, since his very first tenure, and the more recent one, when Malaysians of all stripes and colours elected Pakatan Harapan as the new coalition government on May 9, 2018.

While the seven months leading up to the end of 2018 was considerably stable, events such as the Bumiputera Empowerment Conference, which should have sufficed to enhance the standing of the Malays viz other races, should have been been a one-off summitry.

Yet, there is now the Malay Dignity Congress that appears strong on rhetoric, but weak on execution on the part of the public and private sector.

To make matters worse, there are efforts by select Muslims to ban non-Muslim manufactured goods and services.

If Muslims want to ban non-Muslim manufactured goods and services, why not take the next logical step to ban their votes altogether? After all, it is the votes of non-Muslims that delivered at least 55 parliamentary seats to Pakatan Harapan. One might say that non-Muslims tilted to the Pakatan Harapan’s 119 Malay seats too.

The likes of Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu (above) won on a majority of 18,000 votes, having lost before. Surely, the huge leap in the majority cannot be due to Muslim votes only.

Elsewhere in Sabah and Sarawak, non-Muslims agreed with the Muslims and non-Muslims in the peninsular to bring an end to the kleptocracy of Barisan National. That was the social contract of the New Malaysia.

Precisely because it was a social contract, which Malays of the ultra or non-ultra version like to claim its full force, the New Malaysia cannot now make a cul de sac or U-turn that Pakatan Malaysia is dominated by non-Muslims.

By our Constitution, all Malays are Muslims. Numerically, this immediately implies that 70 percent of the demography in Malaysia are Muslims, since Malays form the backbone of Malaysia.

In fact, Bersatu was formed in a manner not inconsistent with Umno, with branches, divisions, supreme council and all – so that Malays who have grown tired of the excesses of former Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and his wife Rosmah Mansor can have the choice of ousting Umno in favour of Bersatu, thus, losing nothing at all; since Bersatu would start governing Malaysia on a clean sheet.

But the top leadership of Bersatu does not seem to appreciate that the “winter is coming”. The Sino-US conflict will last more than a decade; not unlike how Hong Kong, a world-class financial capital, continues to unravel, week after week.

In the perfect storm, China will continue to race ahead due to the larger reserves which it has, i.e. US$3 trillion; this from a high of US$4 trillion in 2013. China, in other words, is planning on spending out of any economic problems produced by the trade war.

The European Union, a collection of 28 countries, through its European Commission, has also called for an expansionary economic budget across the continent.

Germany, traditionally a frugal country, is seeking to change the laws in the country to allow semi-official entities of Germany to collectively borrow above four percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Meanwhile, algorithms, artificial intelligence, automation, and analysis of big data, are all converging to create “super apps” where everything offline can be done online. The offline to online market is worth US$130 billion alone over the next five years.

One hasn’t delved into the conflict that can occur in Kashmir, between Pakistan and India; indeed Yemen and the Straits of Hormuz between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Nor has one spoken of climate change yet.

In Indonesia, due to the sinking of Jakarta, and the increasing rise in the sea level, President Joko Widodo has agreed to relocate Jakarta to the central part of Kalimantan, near Kota Samarinda, at a cost of close to US$30 billion.

With President Donald Trump admitting that he had called on the help of Ukraine, indeed, even China, to check on the business activities of the son of democratic presidential contender Joseph Biden, there is the possibility of his impeachment in the House of Representatives before it goes to the US Senate where President Trump’s Republican Party has a majority.

Come what may, the world is in serious turbulence. Unless Malaysia is an oasis of peace, marked by good political stability, the country will face more whiplash effects.

Dr. Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think-tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based upon rigorous research.

文章来源:星洲日报 (Sin Chew)

大马是一个贸易国。首相敦马哈迪本人也肯定了这点。不止一次。而是自他首次出任首相,以及最近一次,当各种背景和肤色的大马人在2018年5月9日投票支持希望联盟成立新政府后,他再次出任首相时说都说过。

尽管直到2018年底前七个月内都相对稳定,诸如土著及国家未来大会的活动,就足以满足,以及提升马来人在其他种族中的地位,这原本就是一次性的活动。

然而,现在举办的马来人尊严大会在言辞上似乎很强势,但在公共和私人领域的执行力上却很弱。

更糟的是,有部分穆斯林在杯葛非穆斯林制造的商品和服务。

如果穆斯林想要杯葛非穆斯林的商品和服务,为什么不采取更实际的行动,完全杯葛他们选票?毕竟,希盟是靠非穆斯林的支持才能夺下至少55个国会议席。也许有人会说,在119个马来选区中,非穆斯林倾向支持希盟。

如同现任国防部长末沙布,以1万8000张多数票获胜的人,也曾经败选。难道,这种巨大的成功难道仅仅是因为穆斯林选票吗?

在沙巴和砂拉越,非穆斯林与西马半岛的穆斯林和非穆斯林达成一致,以结束国阵的盗窃统治。那是新大马的社会契约。

正因为这是一份社会契约,极端或不极端的马来人都想宣称其所有权,所以新大马不能钻入死路或U转说大马是由非穆斯林统治的。

根据宪法,所有马来人都是穆斯林。从数字上看,这立刻指出大马人口的70%是穆斯林,因此马来人是大马的主要部分。

实际上,土团党的成立方式,其区部、支部、最高理事会及其他机构,都与巫统一样。因此,对前首相纳吉和其夫人罗斯玛的过分行为感到厌倦的马来人可以选择抛弃巫统支持土团党,因此,他们没有失去什么;而且,土团党的清白历史足以让他们统治大马。

但土团党的最高领导人似乎没有意识到“凛冬将至”。中美贸易战将持续10多年;再加上香港这个世界金融中心,每周正在一点一点地瓦解。

在惊涛骇浪中,中国将由于拥有更多的储备金,大约3万亿美元,而继续前进;他们在2013年,甚至拥有高达4万亿美元的最高值。换句话说,中国,把钱用处理从贸易战产生的任何经济问题上。

由28个国家组成的欧盟,通过其欧洲委员会,也呼吁整个大陆实施扩张性财政政策。

德国,传统上是一个节俭的国家,正在寻求修改该国法律,以允许德国的半官方实体机构集体借贷超过国内生产总值得4%。

总部位于华盛顿的美国国家经济研究局(NBER),由美国8名顶尖的经济学家组成,目前已经看到全球经济衰退的迹象。

同时,演算法、人工智能、自动化和大数据分析,都汇集在一起并创造了“超级应用程序”,让离线的一切工作可以在线完成。在未来5年,离线和在线市场的价值将达到1300亿美元。

人们还没有分析出巴基斯坦和印度就克什米尔的问题可能发生的冲突。还有,封锁位于阿拉伯和伊朗之间的霍尔木兹海峡。别忘了还有气候变化的问题。

在印尼,雅加达因海平面上升而出现沉没危机,总统佐科威同意将雅加达迁都至加里曼丹中部靠近三马林达的地方,耗资近300亿美元。

而总统特朗普承认他城建要求乌克兰协助,实际上,还包括中国,以调查民主党总统候选人拜登的儿子的商业活动,他本身在国会众议院也面临弹劾的危机,尽管特朗普总统本身的共和党在参议院占多数议席。

不论如何,世界正处于严重的动荡。除非大马可以成为一个和平的绿洲,拥有良好的政治稳定,否则这个国家将面临更多的甩鞭效应(whiplash effect)。

莱士胡先是EMIR Research的总裁兼首席执行官,EMIR Research是一家致力于数据驱动型政策研究的智囊团,主要围绕敬业度,适度,创新和严谨原则。

In this article